Markets rally but risks continue to shake
investor sentiment
In what has become a consistent
recent theme, equity markets edged higher in
response to the various stimulatory activities of
the major economic zones and improved investor
sentiment. The US S&P500 index managed to reach new
all time highs by quarter end – an extraordinary
result considering recent sentiment in relation to
Europe and China, as well as the automatic US budget
cuts which will remove US$85B from US agency budgets
between October 2012 and the end of March.
Late in the quarter,
investor confidence was shaken by events
in Cyprus and the possible implications for the
broader European region. In China, recent Purchasing Managers Index
and CPI data disappointed which trickled-down
to effect commodities, which generally struggled
over the quarter with the exception of Gas which returned 20%.
The MSCI World
ex-Australia Index (hedged in $A) was up 10.6% over
the quarter. With the $A strengthening against all
major currencies, unhedged returns (in $A) were
slightly weaker at 7.4%. The US (10.7%), the UK
(9.7%) and Japan (21.5%) markets posted excellent returns
over the quarter, while the Euro region generally
posted more subdued returns due to concerns about Cyprus.
The
S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index posted an excellent
result, returning 8.0% over the quarter, but
underperformed in hedged global equities. Resources were once again the main detractor
from the overall Index performance due to the
Materials sector (-8.5%) significantly lagging the
broader market as the only sector
posting a negative result over the quarter. Strong
double digit performance was achieved by the
Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer
Staples, Financials and IT sectors. Energy,
Telecoms, and Utilities lagged the broader index but
still managed to achieve solid absolute performance
while Health Care performed in line with the broader
market.
Recent events in Cyprus
emphasize that the market recovery is still
vulnerable to shocks and rapid changes in sentiment. For the time being, investor sentiment
appears to be split between the view that
the recent market rally isn’t supported by earnings
growth, and a view that there is a
‘weight of money’ moving from bonds to equities
which will continue to support equity prices.
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Scott Malpass
Investment Officer

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